吉林省居民生活消费的城乡差异及发展趋势分析

Analysis on the Difference and Development Trend of Urban and Rural Residents Living Consumption in Jilin Province

城市和农村作为两种不同的生活地域,在生产方式、生活方式、生存环境和消费水平等方面都存在着较大的差别。本文首先从消费水平、消费结构和消费倾向三个方面对比分析了2003-2012年吉林省城乡居民生活消费的差异;然后运用灰色关联度的计算方法,分析了城乡居民消费水平与人均可支配收入、储蓄余额、商品零售价格指数、社会保障支出、人口抚养比等因素的关联性;最后借助差分自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA),预测了吉林省2013-2016年的城乡生活消费支出差额及发展趋势。

There exist big differences in mode of production, lifestyle, living environment and consumption level between urban and rural areas. This paper firstly analyses differences between urban and rural living consumption of Jilin Province from the aspects of the level of consumption, consumption structure and consumption tendency from 2003 to 2012. Secondly, it analyzes the relevance of these factors which influence the consumption structure of urban and rural life by comparing the consumption structure of urban and rural life in the ten years. Finally, with the aid of SPSS software for ARIMA model predicting of urban and rural household consumption expenditure and the overall development trend of Jilin province 2013-2016. The results show that the overall urban and rural difference still go upward trend.