中国应吸取日本泡沫经济哪些教训——写在“前川报告”发表30年之际

What Should China Learn from Japan's Experiences of Bubble Economy—Write after 30 Years of “Maekawa Report” Announcing

30年前，日本智囊机构发表“前川报告”，提出国际协调、开放市场和金融自由化的结构改革战略。1986～1991年的“泡沫景气”后，日本实施紧缩，泡沫破灭并陷入长期停滞。如今中国取代日本成为世界第二大经济体，进入新常态增长时期，相当于日本1973～1985的安定增长期。比较当年的日本，结构改革将成为一个长期课题。追求增长而采取量化宽松的货币政策，可能催生资产泡沫，不能过度依赖。在这个期间应加增加民生投入，解决医疗、养老、教育等公共服务的滞后问题，避免社会矛盾加剧。

30 years ago,Japan’s authoritative think tank announced so called Maekawa Report, by which endorsed for Plaza Agreement 1985 and expressed structural reform strategy including international harmony, open market, financial deregulation. Japan’s bubble economy during 1986-1991 was caused by these policy changes, especially financial deregulation. Tight financing policy was adopted suddenly by Bank of Japan, the bubble had crashed. Since then Japanese domestic economy step into long term stagnation and deflation, that is the Lost Two Decades. Although quantitative easing policy(QE) was adopted by Bank of Japan firstly and continuously, it may fail to function resulting in some negative impacts. At present, China’s economy has entered a new normal, this would be a long term middle or even low growth like Japan’s period of stable economic growth 1973-1985.Facing downward pressure,PBOC has also adopted QE policy until now. Compared with Japanese experiences, QE policy may fail to stimulate growth with some negative impacts such as asset bubbles followed. During this new normal period, economic policy should focus on the provision of people’s livelihood such as education, medical service, old-age care and social security system ,as what Japanese did in the period of stable economic growth by using social policy, rather than growth rate.