人口年龄结构对居民消费的影响分析——基于微观家庭角度的实证研究

The Population Age Structure Analysis of the Influence of Residents' Consumption: Based on the Research on Micro Angle of the Family

文中首先分析了研究人口年龄结构对居民影响的理论与实践意义,然后列举了已有学者研究的观点和能在该领域的创新方向,最后构建了基于凯恩斯绝对收入假说理论提出的消费函数的扩展计量模型,运用了CHIPS2013数据做了针对微观家庭视角的实证分析,这也是文中的创新点。从实证结果上看,人口老龄化对于城镇家庭的居民消费有显著的负效应,而对于农村家庭来说,家庭中的老年人对于家庭的消费没有显著影响。最后对于当前我国人口结构存在的种种问题提出了相应的建议。

This paper first analyzes the research population age structure impact on the residents of theoretical and practical significance, and then lists the existing academic research point of view and direction of innovation in the field,finally constructed based on the theory of Keynes's absolute income hypothesis proposed by the expansion of the consumption function econometric model, using CHIPS2013 data done according to empirical analysis of the micro perspective of family, this is also the innovation of this article. Look from the empirical results, we concluded that population aging for urban residents' consumption has a significant negative effects of the family, and for rural households,the family of the elderly for no significant impact on family consumption. Finally for the current problem of population structure in our country put forward the corresponding Suggestions.