基于协整模型的福建省教育系统体育场地建设发展趋势预测

Prediction of the development trend of construction of sports venues in the education system of Fujian province based on a co-integration model

以2013年第6次全国体育场地普查数据为依据,采用计量经济学的协整模型等方法,对福建省教育系统体育场地建设发展进行了预测研究。研究表明:2014—2020年福建省教育系统体育场地建设仍将呈现快速发展趋势;预计2020年教育系统体育场地数量将达23 648个,为2013年的1.10倍;体育场地面积将达4 382.01万m2,为2013年的1.38倍;体育场地投资将达1 312 236万元,为2013年的1.81倍。

Based on the 6th national sports venue survey data acquired in 2013, the authors made a predictive study of the development of construction of sports venues in the education system of Fujian province by using methods such as co-integration model in econometrics, and revealed the following findings: between 2014 and 2020, the construction of sports venues in the education system of Fujian province will still present a trend of rapid development;it is predicted that the number of sports venues in the education system of Fujian province will be 23 648 in 2020, 1.10 times that of 2013, the area of sports venues will be 43.820 1 million m2, 1.38 times that of 2013, the investment in sports venues will be 13.122 36 billion Yuan, 1.81 times that of 2013.