基于CREAM的航天发射场人因可靠性定量分析方法

Quantitative Analysis Method of Human Reliability in Launching Base Based on CREAM

为准确得到航天发射场人因失误概率,以我国航天发射场安全评估为背景,基于认知可靠性和失误分析方法,开展航天发射场人因可靠性定量分析方法研究。结合航天发射场特点对共同绩效条件(common performance condition,CPC)进行改进,采用模糊方法处理CPC到控制模式之间的映射关系,提出环境影响因子值的概念,建立航天发射场HRA定量分析流程,并针对火箭吊装过程进行了实例分析。分析结果表明:该方法能够准确计算航天发射场任务作业中的人因失误概率,可为航天发射场人员安全分析提供理论基础和参考。

In order to get the human error probability of the launching base precisely, taken safety evaluation of launching base as background, based on the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM), the launching base human reliability analysis (HRA) was studied in quantify. Firstly, the common performance condition (CPC) is improved in consideration of the launching base. Secondly, the mapping relation from CPC to control model is disposed using a fuzzy method, then the conception of condition effect factor and the HRA flow process of launching base are proposed. Finally,the process of the rocket lifting is analysis as an example. The results show this method can calculates the human error probability of launching base precisely, and also provides theoretical basis and reference for human safety analysis of launching base.