中国中部六省城镇居民消费水平的分析—基于2002—2014年面板数据的研究

The analysis of urban residents consumption levels of six provinces in central China—based on the research of panel data from 2002 to 2014

近年来,随着外贸出口的下降和国家扩大内需政策的实施,居民消费的重要性日益凸显。基于中国中部六省在2002—2014年间的面板数据,结合中国中部六省的消费现状,建立消费函数计量模型,并采用固定效应模型和随机效应模型进行实证分析和Hausman检验。研究发现,中国中部六省城镇居民收入、居民失业情况以及居民前一期的消费习惯对当期消费水平均存在影响。据此提出扩大中国中部地区消费的政策建议,以进一步扩大国内消费,从而使中国中部地区成为国民经济持续增长的又一引擎。

In recent years, with the decline in exports and the implementation of expanding domestic demand in China, the importance of household consumption has become more obvious. This paper establishes a consumption function econometric model, based on the panel data from 2002 to 2014 of six provinces in central China and by combining with the consumption status, by using the fixed effect model and random effect model to carry on the empirical analysis and the Hausman test for it. The result shows that the revenues, the unemployment and the consumption habits of the residents have effects on their current level of consumption. Hereby the policy suggestions of expanding the consumption central China are put forward to further expand the domestic consumption and make the central region become the another engine of national economy.