供应不确定条件下双源与柔性采购联合决策

Joint Strategy of Dual-sourcing and Flexible Purchasing in the Context of Supply Uncertainty

在供应不确定条件下考虑缺货成本与订货过剩风险,可构建一个价低不可靠和一个价高可靠的双源采购条件下的两级供应链模型,并对可靠供应商采用数量柔性采购策略以降低需求的不确定性。模型以实际到货量占订货量的比例变动来描述不可靠供应商的不确定性程度,分析显示供应不确定程度越高,不可靠供应商的订货量越少,而可靠供应商的订货量随风险增加而增加,说明该模型具有很好的适用性和鲁棒性。通过对各参数灵敏度分析,得到不同情况下供应商的选择及订货量的分配决策,同时对比传统双源采购策略,该柔性组合策略的优势明显。

In the context of supply uncertainty,and with the consideration of shortate cost and excess ordering risk,a low price unreliable and high price reliable two-stage supply chain model which under the condition of dual-sourcing procurement can be built. And as for reliable suppliers,the quantity flexible sourcing strategy is adopted to further reduce the uncertainty. The proportion of actual delivery quantity in order quantity is used to describe the uncertainty degree of unreliable suppliers. It is showed that the higher supply uncertainty will lead to the less order quantity from unreliable supplier;and reliable supplier's order quantity will increase with the increased of risk. And this demonstrates that the model has good applicability and robustness.Through the analysis of various parameters’sensitivity,we can make different supplier selection and order allocation decisions in different cases. In the meantime,the authors also compares this flexible combination purchasing strategy to traditional dualsourcing procurement strategy;and it is concluded that the first one has obvious advantages.