摘要
基于高分辨率数值模式的特点,为了弥补传统站点对站点等检验方法的不足,采用基于目标诊断的空间检验方法 MODE,对上海快速更新同化系统预报的2014年3月19日强对流降水和冰雹雷达回波进行了客观检验。该方法通过在空间场中识别目标,综合考虑了空间位置、形状、面积等多种因素,采用模糊逻辑算法计算预报和观测目标的相似度。结果表明,MODE在高分辨率数值模式检验中比传统方法具有明显的优势,尤其针对雷达回波的检验有较高的实际应用价值。同时讨论了MODE方法卷积平滑半径参数的选取对高分辨模式检验结果的影响。
Based on the characteristics of high resolution numerical weather prediction, consideringthe disadvantages of the conventional verification methods, using the method of object -baseddiagnostic evaluation (MODE)carried out an objective evaluation on precipitation and radar echoforecast of strong convective weather on March 19, 2014 of the SMB-WARR system.The methodtakes account of spatial location, shape, area and other attributes of objects, identifies objects ineach fields, calculates similarity of forecast and observed objects using fuzzy logic algorithm. Casestudy shows that, this method has evident advantages and higher practical application valueespecially in the examination of hail radar echo in the high resolution numerical weather forecast.At the same time, the choice of a convolution radius in MODE for the high resolution modelverification is discussed.
作者
李佳
陈葆德
徐同
LI Jia;CHEN Baode;XU Tong(Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 200030,China;Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone,China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 200030,China)
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2016年第5期1-9,共9页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41175094)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006002
GYHY201206006)
上海市科学技术委员会重点基金(13231203300)
关键词
目标检验
MODE
数值模式
雷达回波
object-based verification
MODE
numerical model
radar echo
