巴楚县冬小麦生育期气温变化及其对小麦产量的影响

Effects of Temperature Changes during the Growing Season for Winter Wheat on Yield in Bachu County

利用新疆巴楚气象站1984—2013年逐日气象资料,运用线性回归、趋势系数、异常度、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,分析了巴楚县多时间尺度气温的变化特征对冬小麦生长发育和产量的影响。结果表明:近30 a巴楚县冬季、春季平均气温均呈上升趋势,其中春季平均气温上升趋势显著,并于1998年发生了增暖性突变;寒冷日和酷冷日数均呈减少趋势,其中寒冷日数在1996年发生了减少性突变;稳定通过0℃界限温度的初日表现为提前、终日表现为推迟,持续日数则相应表现为增加趋势;日最高气温≥30℃日数呈增加趋势;冬小麦生长季内前期气温偏低,后期气温偏高是影响小麦产量的主要气候因子,其中抽穗、开花期的平均气温与小麦产量显著相关。

The effects of the change characteristics of temperature for multi-time scales in Bachucounty on growth, development and yield of winter wheat were analyzed by using the linearregression, trend coefficient, anomalous degree and Mann-Kendall test with the daily meteorologicaldata from 1984 to 2013. The results showed that the mean temperatures in winter and spring hadincreasing trends during the past 30 years. The mean temperature in spring had a significantincreasing trend, and the abrupt warming change was in 1998. Both the cold days and wintry daysshowed decreasing trends. And the abrupt change of cold days occurred in 1996. The first and thelast day on which the 0 益lasted through stably had an advance and a delay trend, respectively.The duration between the first and the last day increased. The days of daily maximum temperature逸30 益significantly increased. During the growing season of winter wheat, the lower temperature inthe earlier stage and the higher temperature in the later stage were the major climatic factors thataffected the yield of winter wheat. The average temperatures during the head sprouting and anthesisperiods had significant correlations with the yield of winter wheat.