基于WBS-RBS和AHP方法的水库移民项目风险辨识与分析

Research on the Risk Identification of Project of Reservoir Resettlement Based on WBS-RBS Integrated with AHP

在我国,大量的水利水电工程在社会经济方面发挥着巨大的作用,然而建设阶段引起的水库移民问题如果解决不善,会引起更多的社会矛盾,影响社会安定。本文提出了WBS-RBS和AHP相结合的水库移民安置风险辨识的方法,并详细介绍了WBS-RBS风险辨识方法和AHP风险度计算方法在某水库移民安置项目中的应用,得出风险分析的结论,决策者应根据风险排序的结果制定方案,重点防控主要风险。本文为水库移民安置过程中的风险辨识与分析提供一个可行的方法,也为以后更深入的研究提供一定的参考。

In China, an increasing number of hydraulic and hydro-power projects plays an important role in the economic and society.While in construction period, there are so many problems of reservoir resettlement. If that cannot be settled well, more social unrest will arise. This paper presented the method of WBS-RBS integrated with AHP, introduced the WBS-RBS to identify the risk and the method of AHP to calculate the risk. Then these methods were applied in a project of reservoir resettlement, and came to the conclusions of the risk analysis.So the planners should pay more attention to the prevention and control of major risks according to the results of the risk evaluation.This paper aimed to provide a viable solution for reservoir resettlement in the process of risk identification and analysis and provide reference for furthermore study.