基于蒙特卡罗模拟技术的房地产项目经济评价

Economic Evaluation of Real Estate Project Based on Monte Carlo Simulation Technique

房地产项目经济评价是房地产项目可行性研究的重要组成部分,合理有效的经济评价有利于促进房地产项目的建设和融资。房地产项目的经济效果受到很多不确定因素的影响,对不确定因素的概率分析能够帮我们更好的识别和判断不确定性的程度及变化规律。本文以具体房地产项目为例,将蒙特卡罗模拟技术与matlab相结合,分析评估了项目净现值、内部收益率两大主要不确定因素的变动情况和规律,证明了蒙特卡罗模拟技术在房地产项目经济评价的适用性和可靠性,以此希望对之后的研究提供参考。

The real estate project economic evaluation is an important part of real estate project feasibility study. Reasonable and effective economic evaluation is beneficial to promote the construction and financing of real estate projects. Real estate project economic effect is affected by many uncertain factors, the probability analysis of the uncertain factors can help us to better identify and judge the degree of uncertainty and the rule of change. Based on the specific real estate project as an example, the Monte Carlo Simulation technique combined with MATLAB analysis and evaluation of the project net present value, and internal rate of return rate two major uncertain factors changes and rules. It is proved that the Monte Carlo simulation technique in the applicability and reliability of the economic evaluation of real estate project, hoping to provide a reference for later research.