考虑风险态度的复杂供应链系统仿真分析

Simulation analysis of complex supply chain system considering risk preference

为衡量风险态度对复杂供应链系统的影响,建立了更贴近现实,具有信息系统支持的供应链动态系统模型。刻画了供应链系统的库存量订货量相图,分析不同缺货策略下,受到决策者风险态度影响的非线性供应链系统的动态演化行为。通过仿真实验发现,在一定的情景环境下,复杂的供应链系统有规律可循。当订货决策受到决策者风险态度干扰时,系统会出现混沌。决策者对缺货现象的非理性反应会导致系统复杂性增加,决策者应慎重应对缺货。

For the purpose o f m easuring the effect o f ris k preference to the com plex supply c h a in , this paper b u ilt the dynam icsupply cha in system m odel w h ich was supported by in fo rm a tio n system and was closed to the real situa tion. In order to analyzesupply chain dynam ic evo lu tion behavior w hat was affected by decision m a ke rs5 ris k preference under the d iffe re n t shortage police s , it described the phase diagram s about inven tory and order q u a n tity. The sim ulation experim ents show th a t the com plexsupply cha in system has some re g u la rity under the certain conditions. W hen the order decisions were distu rbed by the riskpreference, the chaotic behavior was caused. The decision m akers should be very careful to the shortage phenom enon becausethe n o n-ra tiona l reaction to the shortage w ould cause more and more com plex system.