欠发达地区新型城镇化与金融支持关系研究

An Empirical Research of the Relationship between New Urbanization and Financial Support in Less-development Areas——A Case of Gansu Province

新型城镇化作为中国发展进入新常态背景下引导经济社会全面转型升级的主要新动能,不仅有利于实现新型工业化、信息化、农业现代化"四化同步"和城乡区域融合发展,而且构成全面建成小康社会关键阶段促进经济结构调整、实现房地产业去库存以及激发新型业态协同发展的关键因素。基于欠发达地区新型城镇化顺利推进离不开金融领域强力支持的特征性事实,以中国内陆省份甘肃为例、立足该省新型城镇化发展现状,通过VAR和Granger因果检验分析发现,长期内甘肃省新型城镇化发展及其资金投入、金融机构营业网点密度之间存在较强因果关系;在脉冲响应函数分析基础上的变量方差分解结果显示,无论是资金投入还是营业网点密度,对甘肃省新型城镇化的方差贡献度都大于35%。因此,努力实现单位平方公里GDP的稳步提升、不断促进新型城镇化进程中资金投入的增加和金融机构营业网点密度的增大,对于甘肃省新型城镇化发展目标的稳步实现至关重要。

As a new kinetic energy of guiding economic society comprehensive upgrading in the background of “China’s New Normal’’ , new urbanization is not only conducive to the realization of new industrialization, information technology,agricultural modernization "four synchronous" and integrated development of urban and rural region, but also constituting a key factor to promote the adjustment of economic structure? to achieve the real estate to inventory as well as to stimulate the development of new collaborative formats in the critical stage to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Based on the stylized facts that the smooth progress of new urbanization is inseparable from the strong support of the financial sectors in China less-developed areas, this paper combines the development status of new urbanization in Gansu province and finds that the development of new urbanization has a strong causal relationship with its capital investment and financial institutions density through VAR and Granger causality test analysis in the long term; based on the analysis of impulse response function? the results of variance decomposition show that both the capital investment and financial institutions density contributing to new urbanization in variance are more than 35% in Gansu province. Therefore, achieving steady improvement of GDP per square kilometer, continuing to promote capital investment and increase financial institution density in the process of new urbanization are essential to steadily achieve the goals of new urbanization in Gansu province.