金融约束、影子银行发展与银行系统稳定性

Financial Restraint,Development of Shadow Banking and Stability of Banking System

我国长期实施的金融约束政策导致正规金融满足不了经济发展的需要,影子银行的发展与之存在紧密的关系。影子银行的高风险会严重威胁银行体系的稳定。通过选取1992—2013年的年度数据核算出影子银行的规模,然后运用BSI指数来模拟影子银行稳定性的数据,采用VAR模型来研究影子银行发展和银行体系稳定性的相关关系,并得出影子银行发展对银行体系稳定性具有双重影响的结论:在影子银行规模比较小时不会对银行体系的稳定性造成影响;而在影子银行规模比较大时则会对银行体系的稳定性造成不利的影响。因此,建议放松金融约束、把控影子银行发展的节奏以维持银行系统的稳定。

China’s long-run financial restraint policy makes normal finance unable to meet the needs of economicdevelopment,which is closely related to the development of shadow banking.High risk of shadow banking poses a seriousthreat to the stability of banking system.The article estimates the scale of shadow banking by choosing the data from1992to2013,simulates the data of stability of shadow banking with BSI index,studies the corelationship between thedevelopment of shadow banking and the stability of banking system with VAR model and draws the conclusion that thedevelopment of shadow banking has dual effects on the stability of banking system.When the scale of shadow banking isrelatively small,it will not affect the stability of banking system.When the scale of shadow banking is relatively large,itwill have some adverse effects on the stability of banking system.Therefore,it’s necessary to relax financial restraint andcontrol the pace of development of shadow banking to maintain the stability of banking system