低生育率自我强化效应的社会学机制的检验与再阐述

Examination and New Explanation of Sociological Self-reinforcing Mechanism of Low Fertility

本文从低生育率陷阱原假说出发,利用低生育率典型地区宜昌的调查数据检验并尝试重新阐释低生育率自我强化效应的社会学机制。数据结果表明,社会学机制的自我强化效果是存在的,保证其作用发挥的理想家庭规模是通过纵横两个方向的社会化过程习得的。纵向社会化的学习来源是育龄人群的父母的子女数量,横向社会化的学习来源是育龄人群的同辈人的常见子女数量和其所处的计生政策环境。社会化过程具有退行性特征,因此育龄人群的理想家庭规模更倾向于较小的值,在社会学机制的作用下,育龄人群最终生育数量更倾向于小于其父辈。由此,低生育率实现了代际传递,进而实现了自我加强。但是这并不表示这种自我强化机制是不可改变的。

Base on the Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis,the paper tries to give examination and new explana?tion of sociological self-reinforcing mechanism of low fertility with the data from Yichang which is a typicalregion of low fertility. Survey results indicate that,sociological self-reinforcing mechanism works in Chinaand its foundation,personal ideal family size,is from longitudinal and transverse socializations. The springof longitudinal socialization is the quantity of children of parents and the springs of transverse socializationare the quantity of children of contemporary and fertility policy. The socializations have an attenuation ten?dency to minimize the personal ideal family size and then make that women’s quantities are smaller thantheir parents’. For above reasons,low fertility repeats itself from one generation to another. However,the so?ciological self-reinforcing mechanism would be changed.