基于灰色模型的土地利用与碳排放关系研究

The Research on the Relationship between Land Use and Carbon Emissions Based on the Grey Model

“十三五”时期要全面建成小康社会，经济发展方式转变将取得实质性进展。研究土地利用与碳排放二者的关系，有助于优化用地结构、实现节能减排的目标，对“十三五”规划的编制、转变发展方式、推动科学发展具有重要的指导意义。本文采用灰色模型，对某市土地利用结构和碳排放相关指标进行关联度分析。研究结果表明，2007~2012年期间，某市碳排放量、人均碳排放量、碳排放强度与七类典型用地均有较强的关联度。通过灰色预测模型发现，某市要完成2020年的低碳经济目标，需严格控制农用地转用，增加园地和林地的地类面积，以增加碳汇用地；减少城镇村及工矿用地和交通运输用地的地类面积。

During the 13th Five Year Plan Period, economic development pattern will achieve substantive progress. The research about association degree between Land use and Carbon emissions will be help to optimize land use structure and achieve energy saving targets, which will be useful for the Thirteen Five-year Plan. The paper research about association degree between Land use and Carbon emissions based on Grey Model. The results show that during 2007 - 2012 period,carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions and carbon intensity have a strong association with seven typical land Class.By gray prediction model, to complete the 2020 goal of a low carbon economy, the city need to strictly control the conversion of agricultural land mark, increasing the planning of garden and woodland ground class area, in order to increase land carbon sinks to class; to reduce class area of town village and industrial land and transportation land, in order to reduce carbon emissions from land use to carry class.