基于层次分析法擂鼓镇五星沟泥石流危险性评价

The Step Analysis Method-based Assessment of the Danger Caused by the Wuxinggou Mud-rock Flow in Leigu Town

结合沟谷地形地质条件，运用层次分析法，选取了24h最大降雨量A8、不稳定沟床比例A7、松散固体物质储量A6、流域切割密度A5、沟床平均坡降A4、流域面积A3、泥石流发生频率A2和一次冲出固体物质总量A1等8项评价指标，借助Matlab软件计算得到评价指标权重，对五星沟泥石流的危险性做定量评估得到危险度，并与刘希林评价模型对比分析，得到5～20a1遇泥石流R1=18.56，属于高危险性泥石流，50～100a1遇泥石流R2=22.03，属于极高危险性泥石流。

According to the valley topographic and geologic conditions the paper used the step analysis method to select 8 indicators for danger assessment, i. e. 24h max. rainfall A8, unstable gulley bed scale A7, reserve of bulk solid materials A6, river basin dissection density A5, gulley bed average gradient A4, river basin area A3,occurrence frequency of mud-rock fl ow A2 and total quantity of solid materials washed out A1. The paper also obtained the weight of assessment indicators calculated by applying Matlab software and made quantitative evaluation of the danger of Wuxinggou mud-rock fl ow. The comparison made with Liu Xilin’s evaluation model concludes that the mud-rock fl ow occurred in 5--20a R1=18.56 is of high danger and that in 50--100a R2=22.03 is of extremely high danger.