全球变化环境下流感时空传播模拟与预警技术报告

Simulation and Forecast of the Influenza Virus Transmission in the Global Change Environment

流感的传播和暴发是关系到公共健康的重要议题。开展基础科学和应用科学研究,探索流感病毒的传播特性和规律,探究不同环境因子所起的作用,分析全球变化对流感传播的影响,建立流感时空传播模型,预警未来流感的发生和传播,意义重大。课题研究分为4个方面:生物/地理数据库、流感传播模型、数据分析模块、模拟和预警系统平台。具体地,研究生物/地理数据的信息标准化、数据组织规范、元数据描述规范、数据统一建模和管理;研究不同尺度上的流感传播和基因进化,分析网络流感事件和流感发生统计记录之间的关联关系,研究鄱阳湖的环境变化对候鸟迁徙的影响;需要研发针对不同类型生物和地理数据的通用的高性能分析模块;研究建立全球变化下的流感传播模拟和预警系统平台。课题将研究建立流感传播的机理模型和统计关联模型,将发展流感传播的模拟和预警技术。

The transmission and the outbreaks of influenza virus is one of the major concerns in the public health area.Fundamental and applied research on the following aspects are highly desired: knowing the characteristics and the principles of influenza virus transmission, understanding the environmental drivers and their roles, evaluating the effects of global environmental changes to the transmission and the outbreaks of influenza virus, establishing the influenza virus transmission models, and forecasting the future developments and the risks of influenza virus transmission. This project focuses on the biological/geographical data modeling, influenza virus transmission, data analysis module, and simulation and forecasting system prototype. This research is expected to establish the mechanism model and the statistics model for influenza virus transmission and to develop the advanced simulation and forecasting technologies.