新常态下我国地方政府性债务压力分析

Pressure Analysis of the Local Government Debt in the Situation of New Normal

新常态下,地方政府偿债压力加大,债务规模激增。基于新常态的背景,建立相关模型,从民生及基础设施建设、扶贫及保障性住房建设、就业及社保基金缺口和新型城镇化等四个方面,定量测算各省级政府在2016—2020年的债务规模。然后用债务增长平衡系数和负债率两个指标来衡量各地的债务压力,发现黑龙江、辽宁等地债务增速迅猛,按时偿还到期债务是各地方政府面临的主要困境,而且青海、贵州和甘肃的负债率远超国际警戒线。在以上分析结果基础上得出了债务风险总体可控、局部加剧等相关结论,并提出加快经济发展、市场化改革、财税体制改革和建立地方政府债务风险评估体系等建议。

In the situation of New Normal,the pressure of local government debt repayment increases and the scale of debt surges.Based on the background of New Normal,a relative model was built to quantitatively measure the scale of debt of each provincialgovernment from2016to2020,from four aspects including the construction of livelihood and infrastructure,poverty alleviationand construction of security housing,employment and the gap of social security fund,and new urbanization.Afterwards,their debt pressure was measured by debt growth balance coefficient and debt ratio,which found the debt growth was swift in Heilongjiang,Liaoning and so on and repaying due debt on time was the main dilemma for each local government.Meanwhile,thedebt ratio of Qinghai,Guizhou and Gansu was far more than international cordon.On the basis of result mentioned above,thispaper makes some relative conclusion that the debt risk is controllable overall but aggravates locally,and offers some proposals includingaccelerating economy development,marketization reform,financial and tax system reform,and building evaluation systemfor the local government debt risk.