P气田基于地质模型的储量不确定性分析

Analysis on Uncertainty of Reserve Based on Geology Model in P Gas Field

地质建模的最终目的是建立反映地质认识的地质模型,并对储层的不确定性以及由此带来的储量不确定性进行定量表征。南海P气田正处于开发的前期研究阶段,井点资料少,储层的纵横向变化快,储量不确定性强。该文以地质模型为载体,探讨了该气田地质储量不确定性分析的方法,总结了相似气田地质储量不确定性分析的一般方法:通过对变量的敏感性分析,确定影响该气田地质储量的主要变量,以此为基础通过拉丁超立方概率分析法进行储量评价及地质模型的优选,最终确定构造和气水界面的变化是影响该气田储量的主要因素,P50是该气田可动用储量。该方法为前期研究阶段的储量动用提供了新的思路。

The ultimate goal ol geological modeling is to set up a reasonable geological model and characterize theuncertainty ol reservoir and reserves.The South China Sea P gas field is at the stage ol early study and its well datais lack,the lateral and vertical variety ol reservoir is very quick,so the uncertainty ol the reserve is very strong.This paper discussed the method lor the uncertainty ol reserve based on geology model,then the general method aboutthe uncertainty ol similar gas lield has been summarized.Through analysis on the sensitivity about the variable,the main variable has been determined.Based on this study,reserve evaluation and optimization ol geological modelhave been done by Latin Hypercube Sampling.At last the change ol structure and OWC is delined as the main lactorallected the reserve ol the gas lield,and P50is the producing reserve.The method provide a new thought l'or reserveutilization at the stage ol early study.