基于FAHP-CIM的海绵城市建设项目融资风险度量研究

Measurement of financing risks of constructing sponge city projects based on FAHP-CIM

从融资结构、项目特征、融资环境分析3个方面分析海绵城市建设项目融资风险的来源,根据风险理论和经济理论,建立海绵城市建设项目融资风险形成机制,结合我国海绵城市建设实际情况,基于目标管理原则,构建海绵城市建设项目融资风险指标体系;运用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)度量各融资风险因素的权重,结合控制区间与记忆模型(CIM)对海绵城市建设项目融资风险进行度量;通过实例分析证明运用FAHP-CIM度量融资风险的有效性和实用性,从宏观和微观2个层面对控制海绵城市建设项目融资风险提出相关建议。

From the three aspects of financing structure,project characteristics and financing environment, the sources of financing risks of constructing sponge city projects are analyzed.According to the risk theory and economic theory,the formation mechanism of financing risks of constructing sponge city projects is established. Combined with the actual situation of constructing sponge cities in China,an index system of financing risks of constructing sponge city projects is formulated based on the SMART principle. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process( FAHP)is used to measure the weights of financing risk factors,and the controlled interval and memory model( CIM) is combined to measure the financing risks of constructing sponge city projects.The analysis of case studies demonstrates the practicality and effectiveness of the FAHP-CIM in measuring the financing risks.Finally,the relevant recommendations to control the financing risks of constructing the sponge city projects are proposed from the macro and micro aspects.