环境税的SO2和NOx行业排放分解效应研究

Environmental tax and SO_2 and NO_x emissions-a sector level decomposition analysis

基于环境CGE模型,通过对生产环节排放的SO_2和NO_x,同时征收环境税,将行业SO_2和NO_x的减排量分解为产出规模效应、过程排放效应、中间投入替代效应、能源替代效应(排放基数效应和排放强度效应)和国产进口替代效应,模拟分析我国SO_2和NO_x行业排放量变化的原因.结果显示,SO_2和NO_x的排放量分别减少29万t和13万t,因行业中间使用煤炭减少的SO_2和NO_x排放量分别为57%和99%.从行业分解效应来看,SO_2和NO_x的排放量下降均主要得益于能源替代效应,减排量分别为27万t和12万t,其次是产出规模效应,减排量分别为2万t和8579t.其中,电力行业的减排量最大,能源替代效应完全占主导作用.然而,不同行业的SO_2和NO_x排放变化的主要影响因素存在很大差异.因此,政府在征收环境税时,应着重考虑行业SO_2和NO_x减排的差异性.

Based on environmental CGE model,the SO2and NOx emissions reduction of sectors were decomposed intooutput scale effect,process emission effect,intermediate input substitution effect,energy substitution effect(emissionsintensity effect and emissions base effect),and import substitution effect.It was showed by analytical results that SO2andNOx emissions were decreased by290000tons and130000tons,respectively,in which,the reduction of coal use asintermediate inputs accounted for57%and99%,respectively.Besides,it was showed by our decomposition analysis thatenergy substitution effects made the strongest contribution,SO2and NOx emissions were reduced by270000tons and120000tons,respectively.This was followed by output scale effects,contributing20000tons and8579tons of emissionscut,respectively.On the sector level,the largest emissions reduction was contributed by the electric power sector,towhich energy substitution effects made the greatest contribution.The main factors for SO2and NOx emissions reductionvaried significantly across sectors.Therefore,when levying environmental tax,sectors’idiosyncrasies in reducing SO2and NOx emissions should be considered by the government.