基于故障数据的计算机联锁系统寿命预测方法

Life prediction for railway computerized interlocking system based on fault data

文章从计算机联锁系统原理和硬件结构出发,提出了基于现场运维故障数据的系统寿命预测方法。利用故障树分析方法对计算机联锁系统的体系结构进行分析,求解最小割集,找到影响系统使用寿命的关键因素;将板级故障数据按照指数分布、威布尔分布的统计分布规律进行归类,使寿命预测模型更加贴近实际。最后,以我国铁路具有代表性的A/B型计算机联锁系统为例,验证了该方法的可行性。提出的计算机联锁系统寿命预测方法可为类似信号设备的运维管理提供借鉴。

Based on the analysis of principle and hardware architecture of computerized interlocking system, this paper proposed a novel method of life prediction by using fault data. The fault tree model of the system was built, from the calculation of the minimum cut set of the fault tree, the key factors that affecting the service life were achieved; and the board-level fault data was classified in accordance with the Exponential and Weibull distribution statistical rules, which made the life prediction model more practical. Finally, taken a widely applied A/B computerized interlocking system as an example, the simulation result showed that the proposed method was feasible. The work in this paper could provide reference for the maintenance management of similar signaling equipment.