基于马尔科夫链的单体雷暴飞行受限区模型

Based on Markov Chain Single Thunderstorm Flight Restricted Area Model

划设飞行受限区是改航路径规划的关键,只有科学合理地划设飞行受限区域的边界,才能为后续合理地规划改航飞行路径做准备。直接对雷暴的初始雷达反射图进行处理,运用形态学的方法解析出危险天气的边界和区域中心点,通过状态转移矩阵预测雷暴的运动轨迹,并模拟其在运动过程中的变化情况。算例分析表明,此方法描述的雷暴运动轨迹更加多样,这样可以使预测更准确,模拟出的雷暴变化情况更复杂,更贴近于实际。

The key to the planning of flight path planning is to set up the flight restricted area.Only by scientif-ically and rationally planning the boundary of the restricted area of flight,can be prepared for the future planning of the flight path.The initial radar reflection map of thunderstorm is processed directly.Using morphological method the boundary and regional center of dangerous weather were resolved.Through the state transition matrix the trajec-tory of thunderstorm and simulate the changes in the movement process were predicted.Example analysis shows that,the method described is more diverse,which can make the forecast more accurate.Simulated changes in the thunderstorm is more complex,more close to the actual.