工业部门的终端能源消费“S”形模型研究

S-curve Model of End-use Energy Consumption in Industrial Sector

工业部门作为终端能源消费中三大主要部门之一,对经济发展具有重要作用。本文系统分析了15个发达经济体100多年来工业部门终端能源消费与人口和经济发展(GDP)的关系,发现随着人均GDP的增长,工业部门的人均终端能源消费显现缓慢增长、加速增长、减速增长到零增长或负增长的"S"形轨迹,并可分为高、中、低三个类型。通过重点解剖美、日、德、法和意大利等典型国家工业部门终端能源消费与经济发展的历史,标定了不同类型"S"形曲线的起飞点、转折点和零增长点,讨论了工业部门终端能源消费与能源消费强度、二产比例、城市化率和人均钢铁消费的内在联系,建立了"S"形曲线的一般性数学模型。工业部门终端能源消费与经济发展定量关系的确定对于国家,特别是发展中国家把握工业化过程能源消费趋势、预测能源需求和制定相关能源政策具有重要意义。

The industrial sector has become one of the three main sectors of end-use energy consumption and hasbeen playing an important role in economic development.This paper systematically analyzed the relationshipbetween end-use energy consumption in the industrial sector and population and economic development(GDP)using data obtained over100years in15developed countries or regions.The results show that,with the growth ofGDP per capita,end-use energy consumption per capita in industrial sector shows an S-shaped track like“slowgrowth-accelerating growth-decelerating growth-zero growth or negative growth”,and can be divided into high,medium and low types.Based on the anatomy of the history of end-use energy consumption in industrial sector andeconomic development in typical countries such as the USA,Japan,Germany,France and Italy,the authorscalibrated take-off point,turning point and zero growth point on different S-types and discussed the internalconnection between end-use energy consumption in industrial sector and energy consumption intensity in industrialsector,percentage of the secondary industry,urbanization and crude steel consumption per capita.Finally,a generalmathematical model of the S-curve was established.The establishment of the quantitative relationship betweenend-use energy consumption in industrial sector and economic development is considered to be of strategic importancefor a country,especially for a developing country,in such aspects as grasping the trend of energy consumption in theprocess of industrialization,forecasting the energy demand,and formulating the relevant energy policy.