不确定信息下反导拦截效果评估

Assessment of TBM Interception Effect under Uncertainty

针对不确定信息下反导拦截效果评估过程中指标信息和权重信息都不确定,传统评估方法很难加以解决的问题,使用区间数和随机多属性可接受性分析(SMAA)相结合的方法对反导拦截效果进行了评估。首先,根据来袭弹道导弹目标的毁伤程度划分了拦截效果等级;然后,针对观测信息的不确定性,采用区间数和隶属函数对特征指标进行了表示;在此基础上,通过引入SMAA方法,计算和比较拦截效果为各拦截等级的可接受性指标和信任因子,对不确定信息下反导拦截效果进行了评估。实例计算结果表明所介绍的不确定信息下反导拦截效果评估方法是可行的。

Considering that the assessment of TBM interception effect under uncertainty cannot be conducted with the existing interception effect assessment methods in anti -TBM combat, an interception effect assessment method based on interval number and SMAA(Stochastic Multi-criteria Acceptability Analysis)is proposed. First,the interception effect levels is marked according to the condition of target damage. Then,aimed at the uncertain information,the characteristic indexes arerepresented based on interval number and membership functions. On this basis,the anti -TBM interception effect assessment under uncertainty is conducted based on SMAA method. The numerical examples’results prove that the method proposed in this paper is practicability and efficient.