基于逐步回归分析的潮河上游地下水位变化模型

The Models about Changes of Underground Water in the Upper Chaohe River Basin Based on Stepwise Regression

潮河是北京重要水源,探讨潮河流域地下水位变化的原因,对未来北京市的水资源合理利用与管理具有重要现实意义。为此,基于逐步回归方法,通过对潮河上游地下水位变化分析,探讨了影响其地下水变化的因素,建立了相应的回归模型,得出如下结论:(1)受自然与人类活动的影响,潮河源地的丰宁县的地下水已呈现不同程度的下降。其中,具有流域上游代表性的土城站地下水以6cm/a速度迅速下降,下降趋势明显;而相邻流域的滦河上游两站点分别以0.5cm/a、1cm/a速度下降。(2)潮河上游地下水位月变化与月平均风速、最大风速及月相对湿度存在密切的关系,而潮河上游地下水的年变化与流域人口数、林果灌溉面积、小牲畜头数及大田灌溉用水量等存在显著相关,可建立线性回归模型。

The Chaohe River is the catchment of Miyun Reservoir which is the main surface water source to Beijing. It is necessary to conduct researches on the reasons and the influencing factors of the changing water level of the Chaohe River, which is significant for the utilization and administration of Beijing’s water resource. Therefore, based on stepwise regression and the analysis from changes of underground water level in the upper Chaohe River Basin, the factors that affect the change of groundwater were discussed, as well as the relevant model was established in this paper. The major results could be summarized as follows: (1) The underground water levels have decreased in different degrees in the Chaohe River of Fengning Manchu Autonomous County for natural and human factors. For example, the underground water level has decreased quickly in Tucheng by 6cm/a, which shows an obvious declining tendency. At the same time, there have decreased respectively by 0.5 cm/a and 1 cm/a in Luanhe river upstream in two research stations. (2) There was a significant correlation between monthly groundwater level and monthly average wind speed, maximum wind speed, and relative humidity in the upper Chaohe River Basin. While there was also a significant correlation between annual groundwater level and total population, irrigated forestland area, small livestock population and the water consumption of cultivated land. So the regression models can be built.