基于LEAP模型的云南省供给侧结构性改革对产业碳排放影响情景分析

Scenario analysis of the supply-side structural reform influences on industrial carbon emissions based on LEAP model in Yunnan province

基于LEAP模型,通过设定经济技术情景方案,评估了云南省2012~2050年间供给侧结构性改革对产业碳排放及碳强度的影响.研究结果表明,与参考情景相比,2050年云南产业碳排放在供给侧改革情景下将减少4.9亿t,但仍不能实现2030年左右达峰的减排目标;云南产业碳排放在未来将更加集中于电力、金属压延加工、非金属制品、交通运输和化学工业五大高碳产业部门,其中交通运输部门的贡献率呈持续上升趋势,而其他部门的贡献率都呈下降趋势;七大高碳能源的产业碳排放贡献率高达96%,并保持相对稳定,其中煤炭类能源的贡献率将持续降低,而石油制品和天然气的贡献率将持续升高.为了实现低碳转型,云南省应加大总量控制目标的实施力度,重点加强交通运输部门的供给侧改革,并在加强可再生能源开发的同时提高其利用率.

LEAP model was applied to evaluate the supply-side structural reforms’impacts on industrial carbon emissionsand intensity by setting economic and technological scenarios in Yunnan province from2012to2050.The resultsdemonstrated that the industrial carbon emissions would reduce0.49billion tons in the supply-side reform scenario in2050compared to the reference scenario.However,carbon emissions in Yunnan would rise steadily which led to missingthe target of achieving a peak in2030.Most of the carbon emissions were contributed by five carbon intensive sectors aselectricity,metal processing,non-metal production,transportation and chemistry.In these five sectors,only carbonemissions in transportation sector would increase substantially while carbon emissions in other4sectors would alldecrease.Seven carbon intensive energies would contribute over96%of industrial carbon emissions and this proportionwould keep stable during2012~2050.In these carbon intensive energies,coals’contribution would decrease stably butoils and nature gas would contribute more carbon emissions.In order to realize low-carbon transformation,thegovernment of Yunnan province should make more efforts on achieving the target to control the volume of carbonemissions.Measures on supply-side reforms should be strengthened to deal with the sharp increase of carbon emissions inthe transportation sector in the future.Meanwhile,more measures should be applied on renewable energy exploit and itsutility efficiency improvement.