日本第十次科学技术预见及其解析

The Tenth Science and Technology Foresight Project in Japan

日本第十次科学技术预见项目是目前日本最新完成的科学技术预见项目,具有较大研究价值。笔者从研究对象、研究方法、研究规模和研究结果四方面对该项目进行了介绍与评析。分析研究表明,此次技术预见具有以下几个特点:研究对象的实用性和前瞻性、研究方法的可行性、规模庞大、研究结果较为严谨。这是一次投入了大量人力财力物力进行的全国性技术预见,其在组织实施及技术预见方法等方面有较多值得学习和借鉴的地方,也有需要改进的不足之处。

The Tenth Science and Technology Foresight Project in Japan was the latest one with great research value. The article introduced this project from four aspects such as research object, research methods,research-scale and research findings. The project has the following characteristics: the practicality and forwardlooking of the research object; the feasibility of the research method; large scale; the rigor of the research results. This is a nationwide technology foresight involve great human, financial and material resources, and thus the organization, implementation and research method of it is worth learning from.