东北冷涡活动及其短期气候预测研究进展

An Overview of the Northeast China Cold Vortex and Short-Term Climate Forecast

东北冷涡是亚洲东部中纬度的重要天气系统之一,尤其在春末至初夏对我国东北、华北地区,甚至江淮及以南地区的气候异常具有举足轻重的影响。自20世纪70年代以来,国内对东北冷涡的研究,从着重天气结构、中尺度特征和暴雨发生的物理过程等,转向东北冷涡活动的机器自动监测、气候学特征、影响东北夏季低温的东北冷涡活动频率,以及预测信号等;今后,研究更可能关注于东北冷涡的天气尺度与气候尺度诊断并重、高相关与物理过程预测信号提取研究并重,以及诊断与数值预报方法密切结合。通过年际、季节与月等多时空尺度融合方法研究,对于进一步提高东北冷涡短期气候预测水平将是十分有益的。

The Northeast China cold vortex (NECV) is an important synoptic system in the Eastern Asia. It plays a very important role on the climate anomaly over the Northeast China, North China, even the Changjiang-Huaihe region and south of the region in late spring and early summer. Since 1970s, the research of NECV has been focused on weather structure, mesoscale features and the physical process of rainstorm and so on. Now the attentions turn to its activity automatic monitoring by computer, climatic characteristics, frequency impacting on the region summer low temperature and the predictable signals. In the future, we should pay more attentions on the synoptic and climatic scale diagnosis, abstracting its predictable signals from high correlations and physical processes, and on combination of diagnosis and numerical prediction. In all, it is helpful to improve the prediction of NECV by merging the multiple spatial and temporal scales.