基于AHP-模糊综合评价法的PPP项目投资风险评价研究

PPP Project Investment Risk Evaluation Based on AHP-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

本文基于AHP-模糊综合评价法,通过对现有文献的疏理和总结,将PPP项目投资风险分为国家级层面风险、市场级层面风险、项目级层面风险3类。建立PPP项目的风险评价指标体系,其中包括6个一级风险因素指标,具体又细分为34个二级风险因素指标。通过Delphi Method进行问卷调查,运用层次分析法得出各因素权重,运用模糊综合评价法对风险因素评分,采用案例验证风险评价模型取得较好效果,为PPP项目投资风险决策和管理提供较好的参考依据。

Reviewing and summarizing the existing literature,the article divides the PPP project investment risk into national level risk,market level risk level and project level risk based on the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.It establishes a PPP project risk evaluation index system including six primary risk factors,which are subdivided into thirty-four secondary indicators.It makes a questionnaire survey with the Delphi Method,gets the weight of various factorswith AHP(analytic hierarchy process),and scores risk factors with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.It getssome good results by using some cases to verify risk evaluation model,which is beneficial to the PPP project investmentrisk decision-making and management.