普通高中招生“指标到校”政策是否有利于农村初中学生?——基于J市的经验研究

Does“Zhi biao dao xiao”Policy Benefit Rural Junior High School Students? :An Experience Study from J City

本文基于我国华北J市两个县2006-2008届全体初中毕业生的数据,使用三重差分方法分析了普通高中招生"指标到校"政策对农村初中学生升学的影响。主要结论是:"指标到校"政策的效果取决于指标分配的具体方式。当"指标到校"政策的指标分配明显向农村初中倾斜时,该政策有利于农村初中学生升学,表现为该政策提高了农村初中学生选择接受普通高中教育和进入优质高中学习的可能性,同时减少了农村初中学生通过择校方式进入优质高中的可能性从而减少了其接受优质高中教育的成本。但是,当指标分配向农村初中倾斜的力度不明显时,"指标到校"政策对农村初中学生升学的有利影响不复存在。研究结果表明,今后在制订相关政策时必须充分考虑政策设计是否真正有利于弱势群体,否则无法保证能够实现预期的均衡化效果。

Based on the administrative data of junior high school graduates during 2006- 2008 in J city of North China, this paper adopts the method of Difference-in-Difference-in-Difference to analyze the influence of the“Zhi biao dao xiao”policy on rural junior high school students. We find that the policy effect depends on the specific way of distribution. It will bring benefits to rural junior high school students when obviously more“Zhi biao”is given to rural junior high schools. Benefits include that students from rural junior high schools are more likely to both enroll in senior high schools and high-quality senior high schools, and less likely to be enrolled in high-quality senior high schools by the way of“Ze xiao”. However, this policy will pose no positive influence on junior high school graduates if the allocation of“Zhi biao”is not preferential to them obviously. Indications are that in order to achieve balanced educational development, the future“Zhi biao dao xiao”policy should be carefully designed to target disadvantaged groups.