基于灰色预测模型的全球石油资源消耗问题的分析

Analysis of Global Petroleum Resource Consumption Based on Grey Prediction Model

应用灰色预测理论,以世界石油的年度消耗量为变量,利用2007—2014年的石油年度消耗量,建立灰色预测模型,用以预测未来数年里的石油消耗量X。将当前世界石油资源的预计剩余量Z与X作差,在石油剩余量小于一百万吨时视为石油资源枯竭,列出不等式方程。求解模型,结果显示,未来40多年内人类对石油需求量会逐年上升,石油枯竭时间为2060年。

Using the grey forecasting theory,the annual consumption of oil in the world is used as the variable,and the grey forecastingmodel is established to predict the amount of oil consumption in the next few years by the year2014to2007.The estimated residualamount and oil consumption of the current world oil resources are poor,which are regarded as the depletion of oil resources when theremaining amount of oil is less than one million tons.Solving model,the results show that in the next more than and40years,thedemand for oil will continue to rise year by year,oil depletion time for the next years.