大型复杂装备研制项目群风险管理研究

A Review on Development Program Risk Management of Large and Complex Equipment

为有效避免研制项目出现"拖、降、涨"等恶性现象,大型复杂装备研制多采用项目群管理模式,由于同时开放了风险环境,增强了子项目间的复杂交互,使得研制项目群风险管理成为制约项目研制成功率的关键因素。目前装备研制风险管理研究以及项目群风险管理研究多是从静态或局部的角度来展开,虽然也有数值仿真方面的研究,但是对不同风险因素间的动态交互行为,及其进而造成的风险动态演化机制缺乏系统的分析,于是项目群风险演化动力学问题成为下一步的重要研究方向。

In order to effectively prevent the vicious phenomena of"drag progress,dropperformance,rise cost"in development project,the development of large and complex equipment multiuseprogram management model,which opening the risk environment and enhancing the complexinteractions between subprojects,then the program risk management became a key factor whichrestricting the success rate of development project.Currently,equipment development risk managementresearch and program risk management research are mostly expanded from static or local researchaspects,although exit a number of simulation,but lack of systematic studying on the mechanisms ofdynamic interactions between different risk factors,and thus causing risk dynamic evolution,so programrisk dynamic evolution mechanisms becoming the next important research trends.