辽宁经济增长与经济结构相互作用的非线性研究

Nonlinear Interaction of Economic Growth and Economic Structure in Liaoning

运用区制转换的向量自回归模型分析了辽宁省经济增长与城乡收入差距、投资消费结构、产业结构、所有制结构及对外贸易结构的非线性和非对称影响.结果表明:辽宁省经济增长与经济结构的动态关联存在明显的区制转换性和非对称效应.在经济低增长状态下,缩小城乡收入差距、优化投资结构和产业结构更有利于促进经济的持续稳定增长;在经济高增长状态下,投资消费结构与对外贸易结构变化是造成经济增长剧烈波动的重要根源.在目前低经济增长状态下,政府可以通过提升有效投资、刺激消费、强化民生工程、调整产业结构等改革性措施来维持经济的稳定持续增长.

The paper analyzes the mechanism of action between the economic growth and the income gap between urban and rural areas,the investment consumption structure,industrial structure,ownership structure and the mechanism of foreign trade structure through MS-VARX model. The results show that the interactive relationship between economic growth and economic structure is featured by region transformation. Under the condition of low economic growth,narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas,optimizing the investment structure and upgrading the industrial structure can promote the economic continuously and stably. Under the condition of high economic growth,the investment consumption structure and foreign trade structure are the important violent fluctuation sources the economic growth. The government may maintain a stable and sustainable economic growth by promoting effective investment,stimulating consumption,strength for people’s livelihood projects and upgrading the industrial structure.