灰色理论在我国砖产量预测中的应用研究

Application of grey theory in the prediction of brick output in China

提出了驱动我国砖产量变化的主要因素:房屋建筑面积、建筑业产值、固定资产投资、城镇化率。利用灰色GM(1,N)模型建立了我国砖产量与驱动因子之间的数学模型。并运用灰色GM(1,N)模型对我国历年砖产量变化规律进行了预测,取得了较好的效果。根据模型预测结果表明:对我国砖产量影响最大的因素是固定资产投资,城镇化率对砖产量影响最小。

This paper puts forward the main factors which effect on the brick output in our country: construction area, output value of construction, fixed asset investment, rate of urbanization. It establishes the mathematical model between the brick output and driving factor and predicates the variation law of brick output in our country by using grey GM (1, N) model, achieves good results. The results show that the biggest factor affecting China's brick output is fixed asset investment, and the rate of urbanization has the least effect on brick output.