养儿防老观念和农村青年生育意愿——基于CGSS(2013)的经验证据

The Concept of “Raising Sons for Old Age” and Rural Youth's Fertility Desire:Empirical Evidence from CGSS(2013)

采用CGSS(2013)数据,本文实证结果主要得到以下结论:1.养儿防老观念增加了农村青年意愿生育数量并增加了对男孩的偏好;2.低收入和低教育程度的农村青年养儿防老观念对生育意愿的影响更大;3.收入增长、教育提升和社会保障完善对养儿防老观念产生显著负向影响。本研究认为养儿防老动机当前仍然是农村居民多生多育和性别偏好的重要原因,而随着收入增长、教育提升和社会保障的完善等经济社会的发展,养儿防老观念的弱化可能会对农村居民生育意愿产生持续而深远的影响,公共决策部门应持续加强农村地区养老保障体系的建设以应对未来农村地区可能出现的少子化带来的养老难题。

Using CGSS(2013)data,this paper empirically studies the effect of rural youth’s concept of“raising sons for old age”on desired fertility.The empirical results are as follows:1.The concept of“raising sons for old age”increase the desired fertility number and son-preference.2.The results of regression for sub-samples based on education and income show that the concept of“raising sons for old age”of rural youth with lower income and lower education level have greater influence on fertility desire.3.Income growth,the promotion of education and improvement of social security have negative influence on rural youth’s concept of“raising sons for ole age”.This paper argues that the concept of“raising sons for old age”is still an important cause of having more babies and gender preference in rural areas.However,the weakening of youth’s concept of“raising sons for old age”will exert deep and far-reaching influences on fertility desire with the Improvements in education and income,and of the social security.