我国长寿风险的测度分析——基于不同年龄段和性别的视角

Analysis on Measure of Longevity Risk in China:An Angle based on Different Ages and Genders

以年龄段和性别为视角,分别构建了不同年龄段和不同性别的死亡率预测模型。实证检验后发现,所建各模型的预测效果较好,比较适宜于对我国的人口死亡率进行预测;并对我国2017—2021年老年人口的死亡率进行了预测,结果发现不同年龄段、不同性别的老年人口死亡率数据仍处于较低的水平,且男性老年人口死亡率的变动频率要高于女性老年人口,由此说明,我国未来仍将面临较为严峻的长寿风险压力,且男性的长寿风险压力可能更大。

This paper built mortality prediction models in different ages and genders with the prospective of age and gender. After the empirical test, the author found the prediction of models was better, which more suitable for population mortality rate forecast in China. And then the author made a prediction on elderly population mortality rate from 2017 to 2021, the result showed that the elderly population mortality rate data of different age and gender was still in a lower level, the change frequency of male elderly population mortality rate was higher than female elderly population. So we could know the pressure of longevity risk would be more severe in future, at the same time the male’s longevity risk pressure could be more.