使用多模型识别技术探索体育锻炼的健康回报效应——基于2012年中国综合社会调查数据的分析

Exploring the effect of health return of physical exercising by using multi-model identification technology ——An analysis based on the data of Chinese General Social Survey 2012

基于2012年中国综合社会调查数据(CGSS2012),运用赫克曼选择模型和工具变量模型相结合的多模型识别技术,修正了由样本选择、变量遗漏等原因带来的内生性偏误问题,检验了体育行为和健康回报之间的因果机制。同时也估计了体育的健康回报净效应。研究发现:(1)体育行为与健康回报之间并非仅仅有单向的因果关联(即体育促进健康),同时也存在双向作用机制。(2)体育资源分布对人们体育参与的影响并非均质的,对不同群体的作用程度也不相同。(3)体育资源布局不平衡将引发体育参与的不平等以及健康回报不平等问题。

Based on the data of Chinese General Social Survey 2012 (CGSS2012), by applying multi-model identification technology in which the Heckman selection model was combined with the instrumental variable model, the author corrected the problem of endogenous bias brought by such causes as sample selection and variable omission, and verified the causal mechanism between sports behavior and health return. The author also estimated the net effect of health return of sport. The author revealed the following findings: 1) between sports behavior and health return there is not only unidirectional causal correlation (i.e. sport promotes health), but also a bidirectional functioning mechanism; 2)the effect of sports resource distribution on people’s sports participation is not homogeneous, its degrees of functioning on different groups are different; 3) the unbalance of sports resource layout will trigger problems such as sports participation inequality and health return inequality etc.