区域反导威胁评估建模分析

Modeling on Theater Anti-missile Threat Assessment

区域反导威胁评估是区域反导指控系统指挥控制作战进程首要解决的关键问题.从进攻方、拦截系统、保护对象3个视角梳理出威胁评估指标体系,然后基于电场力定性定量地分析和构建了威胁评估模型;利用模糊理论量化射程、突防能力、命中精度、弹头威力、飞抵时间等因素.仿真结果表明该模型计算过程简单,结果可信度高,直观清晰地反映了弹道导弹对区域保护对象的威胁能力及其与拦截系统的防御之间攻击与防御的对抗性.

Threat assessment of theater anti-missile systems is the primary key problem of command and control system conducting operation process. The Index system of threat assessment is refreshed from the view of attacking side, intercepting system and defense object, then threat assessment model is constructed by qualitative and quantitative analysis based on electric field force. Factors as range,penetration capability, shoot precision, warhead power, arriving time are quantized based on fuzzy theory. Simulation results show that the computation is simple, threat assessment reliability is high, which directly and clearly reflect the threat assessment index of Tactical Ballistic Missile (TBM) to theater defense objects and the attacking-defensive antagonism between TBM and intercepting systems.