基于贝叶斯理论的单一机型事故预测方法研究

Investigation of Specific Aircraft's Accident Prediction Based on Bayesian Methodology

通过对贝叶斯统计决策理论的分析,针对单一机型提出了一种基于信息更新理论的事故预测数学模型.通过对不断更新的事故数据分布情况分析,对未来飞机发生的事故进行了较为准确的预测.以某型飞机的事故数据为样本,给出了该预测模型的具体算法与应用方式,并验证了预测准确性,为飞机的事故预测工作提供了借鉴.

Based on Information Updating theory, a mathematical model is established to predict the accident of specific aircraft using the Bayesian Statistical Decision methodology. After analyzing the distribution of renewed accident data, an exact prediction of the future accident of some aircraft can be obtained. In order to prove the feasibility and veracity, the accident of a certain fighter plane of USAF is predicted by the model.