河北省贸易隐含二氧化碳排放及其影响因素研究

Research on the Calculation of Trade Implied Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Its Influence Factors in Hebei Province

针对全球气候变化而引发国家间减排责任的争吵,需要各国从生产和消费的角度来认识二氧化碳排放,国家内部区域之间减排责任的分担也应该从生产和消费两个角度加以认识。为此,本文利用投入产出分析方法和EEBT(双边贸易隐含排放)核算方法核算河北省的二氧化碳排放,发现河北省生产型二氧化碳排放远大于其消费型二氧化碳排放,其中国内流出/流入引发的二氧化碳排放量较大。在利用SDA(结构分解分析法)分析影响贸易隐含二氧化碳排放变化因素时,发现行业二氧化碳排放强度变化对隐含二氧化碳排放具有积极影响,而国民经济行业之间技术经济关系的变化对隐含二氧化碳排放具有消极影响。因此,河北省在利用技术手段降低行业二氧化碳排放强度的同时,还要筛选关键性部门加以重点管理。同时,河北省贸易隐含二氧化碳排放及其影响因素变化对国家制定区域减排责任也有较强参考价值。

An argument for the responsibility of national emission reduction in response to global climate change occurs, and it is needed to understand the carbon dioxide emissions from the point of view of production and consumption. The sharing of emission reduction responsibility in a country should also be realized from two aspects of production and consumption. Therefore, the paper uses the input-output method and the EEBT model to account for the carbon emissions in Hebei province, and find that the carbon dioxide emissions of production type are much more than that of consumption type, among which the carbon dioxide emissions caused by domestic outflow/inflow are more. Using the SDA model to analyze the influence factors of the change of implied carbon dioxide emission, it's found that the change in the industry carbon emission intensity has positive influence on the hidden carbon dioxide emissions, and the technical and economic relations between the national economic sectors has negative influence on the hidden carbon dioxide emissions. For that reason, Hebei province should focus on the use of technical means to reduce the intensity of the industry carbon emissions, and screen the critical sectors that trigger the increase of hidden carbon dioxide emission to manage primarily