人民币汇率与对外贸易和产业结构间的动态关系研究

Dynamic Relationship Between the RMB Exchange Rate and Foreign Trade and Industrial Structure

在对1995—2015年我国汇率变动、对外贸易和产业结构升级的原始数据进行处理与检验的基础上建立VAR模型,并通过Johansen协整检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解的分析.研究认为:我国对外贸易与人民币汇率之间存在双向作用机制,汇率在短期对对外贸易作用较大,长期不明显.产业结构升级对对外贸易和汇率的贡献都有一定的滞后性,并且从长期看作用不断增加,而对外贸易对产业结构升级在短期内有正反两方面的作用.产业结构的优化升级可以促进对外贸易的发展,对外贸易结构的优化对产业结构升级起到一定的带动作用.

We set up the VAR model on the basis of processing and inspection of the original data about the exchangerate changes,foreign trade and industrial structure upgrade from1995to2015.Through Johansen Cointegration test,impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis,the research suggests that there is a two-wayrelationship between the foreign trade and the exchange rate,and exchange rate have great effects on foreign trade inthe short term but no obvious effects in the long term.The upgrading of the industrial structure have certain hysteresiseffects on the foreign trade and exchange rate,and the role is increasing in the long term.The foreign trade have bothpositive and negative effects on the industrial structure upgrade in the short term.The optimization and upgrading ofindustrial structure can promote the development of foreign trade,and the optimization of foreign trade structure have aleading role in the upgrading of industrial structure.