基于物质足迹的城市环境压力及其驱动力研究

The Environmental Pressure and Its Driving Force on City Level:The Perspective of Material Footprint

科学地测度区域环境的压力,并进一步分析环境压力变化的驱动力,对于降低区域环境压力具有重要意义。本文在经济系统物质流分析的理论基础上,测算了上海市2010-2013年的物质足迹,以此来衡量上海市资源代谢全生命周期过程的环境压力,并且将资源结构效应引进IPAT方程来分析环境压力的驱动力。研究表明:2010-2013年间,上海市基于物质足迹的环境压力由2.795亿吨增长到3.08亿吨,经济增长与环境压力处于相对解耦状态;上海市2010年人均物质足迹为12.1吨,约为世界平均值的1.2倍,略低于中国平均水平,比发达国家要低很多;2010-2013年间,上海市基于物质足迹的环境压力增长的主要驱动力为人口增长和富裕度的增加,而技术水平的提升则在部分程度上减少了环境压力的增长,资源结构变化对环境压力的影响很小,但单个资源比例的变化对环境压力具有不可忽视的影响。在此基础上,本研究还提出了降低城市环境压力的相关政策建议。

To reduce environmental pressure(EP)of a region,it is very important to measure the EP scientifically andanalyse its driving force.In this research,based on the theory of economy-wide material flow analysis(EW-MFA),weestimated the material footprint(MF)of Shanghai during2010-2013,and used MF as the measurement of EP for the lifecycle of material metabolism.In addition,we explored the driving force for Shanghai’s EP by a modified IPAT equation,which includes the effect of material structure as a new factor.Results show the following.Firstly,Shanghai’s EP basedon MF increased from297.5to308million tons during the period of2010-2013,and EP is relative decoupling with the economic development.Secondly,the MF per capita in Shanghai for the year2010is12.1tons,which is about1.2timesthan the world average,a little bit lower than the Chinese average and much lower than the developed countries.Thirdly,the dominant driving force on the increasing of EP in Shanghai during2010-2013is the increase of population andaffluence(measured by GDP per capita),while the rising of technology(measured by EP per unit GDP)is the major drivingforce for decreasing Shanghai’s EP.Although the overall change of material structure had a very tiny effect onShanghai’s EP,changes in the proportion of some specific material to the total of MF,for example fossil energy,copper,etc.,had non-ignorable effect on Shanghai’s EP.Based on these observations,we proposed some policy suggestions onreducing Shanghai’s EP in the end of this study.