空间关联视域下跨区域治污资源配置研究

The Allocation of Cross Regional Pollution Control Resources under the Perspective of Spatial Correlation

本文基于大气污染空间关联特征,结合政府污染治理联防联治原则,构建中央政府总量控制配置优化模型和统一价格拍卖配置决策模型,以实现治污资源配置帕累托最优和环境治理总成本降低。并以北京市和天津市空气质量指数AQI为例,应用Copula联合分布函数对京津城市间大气污染排放联合分布作仿真预测,进行中央政府总量控制和统一价格拍卖治污资源优化配置仿真优化。结果表明:降低资源配置错配率更有利于实现资源配置的帕累托最优;基于正态Copula联合分布预测数据来优化配置结果,更接近北京市和天津市实际污染排放优化配置结果。本文研究表明地区间污染排放空间关联应成为跨区域治污资源配置决策的依据之一。

Based on the characteristics of air pollution control resource allocation,this paper constructed the modelof the central government allocation and the uniform price auction allocation model,which set the goal of reducing the mismatch rate and reducing the total cost of environmental governance.Taking Beijing and Tianjin as an example,theCopula joint distribution,random distribution and normal distribution were used to air pollution prediction.The resultsshow that the allocation of resources to reduce the mismatch rate is more conductive to the Pareto optimal allocation.The distribution of atmospheric pollution in Beijing and Tianjin had a thick lower tail correlation.The forecast databased on Normal-Copula was closer to the actual results.