中国大气污染时空格局演变及影响因素研究

The Evolution of Temporal and Spatial Pattern and Influencing Factors of the Air Pollution in China

本文运用统计学和GIS方法分析了近11年来我国大气污染的时空分布演变趋势,应用空间计量经济学方法实证分析了PM_(10)污染的影响因素。结果表明:2004-2012年期间,各地区PM_(10)年均浓度大致上都呈平稳下降的趋势,但是2013和2014年却大幅上升;PM_(10)浓度分布区间逐渐缩小,并向低浓度方向集中;从空间上看,2004-2012年,全国PM_(10)污染程度大大减轻,重污染区域逐渐减小,华东、华北、华中及西南地区污染改善情况最为明显,但是主要污染区域格局并未发生太大变化,还是以西北和华北部分地区为主;我国省域PM_(10)污染存在显著的空间效应,与产业结构、环保投入和人口密度呈显著正相关,与城市绿化和城市降水呈显著负相关。

The paper analyze the evolution trend of space-time distribution of atmospheric pollution in recent11years by using statistical and GIS methods,and analyze the influence factors of PM10by using spatial econometrics method.The results show that:the average annual concentration of PM10steadily declined in the period of2004-2012,buthad increased sharply in2013and2014;The distribution range of the concentration of PM10gradually narrowed to focuson the low concentration direction;From spatial aspect,in2004-2012,the national PM10pollution level was greatly reducedand the number of areas with heavy pollution was gradually decreased,and the improvement of air pollution in theEast,North,Central and Southwest China was most obvious,but the main pollution pattern has not changed much,mainlyin parts of the Northwest and North China;There is a significant spatial effect of PM10pollution in China,which has asignificant positive correlation with the industrial structure,environmental protection investment and population density,and negatively correlated with urban greening and urban precipitation.