大国在南海地区地缘影响力的测算与分析

Calculation and analysis of geopolitical influence of the major powers in the South China Sea

当前南海局势极其严峻,域内国家加强争端岛屿管控,加紧攫取资源,加快扩军步伐;域外大国积极介入,意图遏制我国崛起。南海地区正成为全球新的角力场。通过构建数学模型,从历史与现状两大视角出发,测算出大国对南海周边国家地缘影响力的演变,对比分析了当前大国在南海地区的地缘影响力,科学地评估了域外大国介入南海问题的程度,为正确判断南海地区安全形势提供决策辅助。

The current situation in the South China Sea is extremely serious,inner countries are trying to control the disputed island,stepping up to grabresources,accelerating the pace of military expansion.At the same time,extraterritorialpowers are trying to be actively involved,seeking to halt therise of China.The South China Sea area is becoming a global new wrestlingground.This article constructs a mathematical model,from the perspective ofhistory and current status,to measure the evolution of big powers’geopoliticalinfluence on the South China Sea,and neighboring countries’influence aswell,which include Vietnam,Philippines,Malaysia,Brunei and Indonesia,andto compare their influence on the South China Sea region.Then the article assessesthe extent of the extraterritorial powers involved in the South ChinaSea.We discover that,the history data shows big powers’geopolitical influencein this region increased substantially over time,and the current resultcontributes to guide Chinese foreign policy decisions with the South China Seaneighboring countries and the extraterritorial powers.