湖北省绿色发展指数空间格局及诊断分析

Spatial pattern analysis and diagnosis of green development index in Hubei Province

五大发展理念是破解发展难题、实现第二个百年奋斗目标的必然选择。其中绿色发展是可持续发展的必要条件。科学评价绿色发展,对指导区域可持续发展具有重大意义。本文在科学界定绿色发展概念的基础上,选取2009年-2015年湖北省相关统计年鉴数据,构建了系统层、因素层、指标层。采用层次分析法与专家调查法相结合的方法确立权重,分析湖北省不同地级市绿色发展情况。研究结果表明:湖北省绿色发展水平指数在2011年有一个最低值;2009年至2015年呈现总体增加的趋势。在湖北省地级市绿色发展指数中,武汉市和宜昌市排名前列。神农架林区和恩施州尽管人均GDP较低,但是2015年绿色发展指数进入全省前五名。全局自相关分析表明2009年和2010年绿色发展指数在空间上呈现集聚分布,随后几年呈现空间随机分布模式。局部自相关表明,2015年武汉市绿色发展指数呈现"HH"极点模式。采用障碍度模型进行绿色发展指数诊断分析,表明制约湖北省区域绿色发展的指标因素主要是产业结构、工业废水排放强度、工业废气排放强度、生态环境状况指数等。基于上述结论,结合湖北省实际提出了倡导绿色理念,普及绿色发展知识、实现产业升级换代、大力发展循环经济等政策建议。

Scientific evaluation of green development is of great significancein guiding regional sustainable development.On the basis of the scientificdefinition of the concept of green development,select2009-2015HubeiProvince,the relevant statistical yearbook data constructed system layer,layer factor,index level.Factors which layer contains ecological urbanconstruction efforts,industrial environment friendliness,circulating levelsof economic development,technological innovation level four;index layercomprises19indicators green coverage and so on.Using AHP and expert surveymethod are combined to establish the weights,analysis of different districtsHubei Province green development.The results show that:Hubei greendevelopment index level has a minimum value in2011;from2009to2015showingthe overall increasing trend.Prefecture-level city in Hubei Province greendevelopment index,ranking the forefront of Wuhan and Yichang City.Enshi andShennongjia despite relatively low per capita GDP,but by2015,the greendevelopment index ranking in the top five.Global autocorrelation analysisshows that in2009and2010on the Green Development Index Space Showagglomeration distribution in subsequent years presented random spatialdistribution patterns.Local autocorrelation show,Wuhan Green DevelopmentIndex2015presents"HH"pole model.Obstacles Model analysis shows that greenarea index factors in Hubei Province mainly industrial structure,industrialwastewater emissions intensity,industrial emissions intensity,ecologicalenvironment index.Based on the above findings,we put forwad somesuggestiomns on how to improoe the green econo my in Hubei Province.