近10年以来中国出境旅游的时空分布特征研究

Research on the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of China's outbound tourism in the past 10 years

本文运用年际变动指数、增长率、地理集中指数、变异系数和旅游偏好等指标分析了2004年~2014年中国出境旅游的时空分布特征及影响因素。年际变动指数分析表明,中国出境韩国、泰国、柬埔寨、美国和印尼客流的年际变动较大。增长率分析表明,中国出境旅游的整体呈波动式增长态势,根据各国增长率的历时性变化可将其分为稳定型增长型、快速增长型、波动型和衰退型四大类,其中,印尼、韩国增长率均值排前两位,马来西亚、蒙古排后两位。地理集中指数和变异系数分析表明中国出境旅游空间分布经历了"大分散—小集中"并逐步趋于分散化的特征。旅游偏好指数分析表明,中国出境游客偏爱港澳,出国旅游对新、马、泰、日、韩、美的偏好较高(其中,泰、新。

Using the inter-annual variation index,the market growth rate,thegeographic concentration index,the variation coefficient and the tourism preference index to analysis the spatial and temporal distribution characteristicsas well as the influence factors of China's outbound tourism in thepast10years.Inter-annual variability index analysis showed that the inter-annual variation of China's outbound passenger flows to South Korea,Thailand,Kampuchea,the United States and Indonesia are large.Growth rate analysisshows that China's outbound tourism as a whole is in the fluctuant growthtrend,and China's outbound countries can be classified as four categories asstable growth,rapid growth,fluctuation and recession type according to thecountry's growth rate of the diachronic changes.Among them,Indonesia andSouth Korea are in the top two while Malaysia and Mongolia are in the last twoin terms of average growth rate.Geographic concentration index a nd variationcoefficient analysis showed that China's outbound tourism spatial distributionexperienced a“high dispersion characteristics"and gradually tended to be diversified.Tourism preference index analysis showed that China's outboundtourists prefer Hong Kong,Macao and overseas tourists prefer Singapore,Malaysia,Thailand,Japan,South Korea and the United States(among them,Thailand,Singapore and Japan ranked the top three);further analysis showedthat the diffusion path of the outbound tourism to the East Asia,North America(especially the South Korea and the United States)is obvious,but theoverall outbound tourism is still in short-range travel.The economic,cultural,distance,economic and trade exchanges,outbound tourism policy,paid holidays,major events,the exchange rate changes and the Sino-foreign relationsare important factors affecting the spatial and temporal distribution of China'soutbound tourism in the past10years.