利用探空资料统计分析巴彦淖尔市冰雹过程的物理量特征

A Statistical analysis of physical characteristics by using the sounding data in the hail process of bayannaoer

为了提高巴彦淖尔市冰雹天气的预报预警能力,利用探空资料分别计算了对流有效位能、K指数、沙氏指数、抬升指数、强天气威胁指数和总指数等物理参数,并且对巴彦淖尔市的冰雹、雷暴和稳定降水进行分类分析,结合统计学方法分析各物理参数与冰雹预报之间的相互联系,归纳出适合于巴彦淖尔市冰雹潜势预报的探空指标。结果表明:探空资料反演的众多物理量中,CAPE值和强天气威胁指数对冰雹的预报意义不大,K指数、沙氏指数、抬升指数和总指数对冰雹、雷暴和稳定性降水的区分有很好的指示意义。对巴彦淖尔市不同天气过程中的物理量分析发现,K指数在34℃以上时,发生强冰雹的可能性较大;沙氏指数在-2℃以下时,较大可能性发生强冰雹;抬升指数在-1.5℃以下时,发生强冰雹的可能性较大;总指数在50℃以上时,发生强冰雹和中冰雹的可能性较大。

In order to improve the forecast and warning ability of the hail weather in Bayinnaoer,the parameters of Cape,K index,Showalter index,Lifted index,Severe Weather Threat index and Total index were calculated using the conventional sounding data respectively,with the classification of hail,thunderstorm and stable precipitation in Bayannaoer,combined with the analysis of the relationship between the physical parameters and the hail forecasting statistical method,and induce the suitable sounding indicator of potential hail forecast in Bayannaoer.The results show that in the inversion of many physical quantities with the conventional sounding data,the Cape value and Strong Weather Threat index have little significance to the prediction of Hail,while the K index,the Showalter index,the lifted index and the Total index can be used to distinguish the hail,thunderstorm and stable precipitation.The analysis of physical quantityin different weather process in Bayannaoer showed that when the K index is more than34℃,more likely to happen strong hail;when the Showalter index is below-2℃,great possibility of severe hail;when the Lifted index is under-1.5℃,easily to have strong hail;when the Total index is more than50℃,strong and middle hail are likely to happen.